This week's read. Built from the Cromford city snapshots pulled 9/21 (measured 9/20). Agent-facing, secular. Teach the index once, then everyone leaves knowing their own street.
Run it with the slides. Read this sheet top to bottom and the deck follows in order. The story ▶ slides 1–2 · How to read it ▶ slide 3 · The micro-stories by market ▶ slides 4–6 · The 3 metrics ▶ slide 7 · Your 3 moves ▶ slide 8.
Open with the story, not the stat
"The Valley just split in two. Close in, Scottsdale, Chandler, Gilbert, sellers still win, and Scottsdale is actually climbing. But out in the ring, Tempe, Queen Creek, Buckeye, Maricopa, it flipped, buyers took control. Here's what makes you the expert this week: the national news says the market's slow and balanced. That's wrong for us, because Greater Phoenix is fifteen cities, not one market. So when a client quotes the headline, you quote their street."
The macro story, plain
- Rates are a payment problem, not a stop sign. Still around 7%. Two years ago we closed at 7 to 8, so we're closer to normal than the news makes it feel. A 1-point buydown moves the payment about 10%, a half-point about 5%, and a seller-paid buydown often beats a price cut for the monthly.
- The buyers are coming. Kill the "nobody can afford a house" story. The next wave is forming now. Be the agent they already know when they're ready.
- The West Valley is a long-term growth story. Buckeye, Surprise, Goodyear are early in the arc, population then roads then jobs then the airport. A buyer's market today with real upside tomorrow.
Where the business is this week
Teach it once, use it all season. CMI is the Cromford Market Index, the market's thermometer. 100 is balanced. Above 100 leans seller, below 90 leans buyer, and the further from 100 the stronger the tilt. It moves before prices do, so it tells us where a zip is heading, not just where it's been. And watch the direction: Paradise Valley is 175 but it fell from 210 in a month, a high number cooling fast. Never read the number alone.
| City | CMI | Supply | Days on mkt | Sale-to-list | Median |
|---|
| Scottsdale | 158.8 ↑ | 3.6 mo | 60 | 96.4% | $1.15M |
| Chandler | 130 ↓ | 2.8 mo | 47 | 98.0% | $562K |
| Gilbert | 106 ↓ | 3.1 mo | 55 | 97.5% | $590K |
| Tempe | 78 ↓ | 4.0 mo | 44 | — | $520K |
| Queen Creek | 51 ↓ | 4.1 mo | 78 | 97.8% | $679K |
| Buckeye | 51 | 4.1 mo | 66 | — | $405K |
| Maricopa | 48 ↓ | 5.6 mo | 80 | 99.2% | $334K |
Also worth knowing: Paradise Valley 175 but falling hard (luxury top softening, 7.6 mo supply). Risers to farm: Cave Creek 127 and Avondale 109 are the two quietly getting stronger. West Valley: Peoria 88, Goodyear 75, Surprise 69, all buyer's markets and cooling.
Rochelle + Iyonna — Maricopa Deepest buyer's market
CMI 48 and falling, 5.6 months of supply, homes sit around 80 days, and it's the one market where prices are actually down year over year. But note the 99% sale-to-list, homes still sell, sellers just have to price to the market. Pour your hours into buyer leads, they have leverage and choice, coach them to ask the builder for a rate buydown, not just a price cut. Take a listing only if it's priced aggressively, and set the seller straight up front or it sits.
LaToya — Buckeye Buyer's market, big supply
CMI 51, biggest supply overhang in the West Valley, median $405K, homes about 66 days. New-build competition is real out here, so the aggressively-priced resale is the one that sells, everything else chases the price down all season. For buyers this is the good-news story: choice, leverage, and a seller-paid buydown that beats a price cut on their monthly. And Buckeye's early in the West Valley growth arc, so they buy a deal today and upside tomorrow.
Jacinta — East Valley, Chandler + Gilbert Cooling seller's
Best listing environment on the board. Chandler is the tightest supply in the whole Valley, 2.8 months, sellers keep 98% of list, homes move in about 47 days, but the index is cooling three reads straight. Lead with days-on-market: priced right, the offer comes in the first two weeks, past the 30 to 60 day mark it trades below original list. Your job here is pricing discipline and winning the listing.
Scottsdale & the top end Strengthening
The one lane getting stronger. CMI 158.8 and rising, supply tightening, homes at 96% of list, $1.15M median. Luxury barely feels rates because so much is cash. One nuance to coach: Paradise Valley at the very top is softening, 7.6 months of supply, so the opportunity up there is the listings that have lingered and the sellers who need a real strategy.
Watch — Tempe Just flipped
A year ago this was a seller's market. It just crossed into buyer territory, CMI 78, supply up 27% year over year. Homes still sell fast, 44 days, but the power moved to the buyer. If you work Tempe, this is the week to reframe every buyer conversation around their new leverage.
Anyone near condos Caution
Financing and warrantability, HOA reserve hikes, and insurance are dragging condos. Coach condo sellers to rent or hold if they don't have to sell. For buyers, find warrantable complexes by calling the listing agent of a recent sold unit to get the lender that worked.
The listing conversation this week
Concessions are the whole conversation in the buyer-ring cities. Sellers are paying to make deals, so price and concessions together are the pitch, not price alone. MLS rule, say it every week: only lender and closing costs go in the concession field, never buyer-agent commission. It wrecks the comps.
The teaching point
Every agent leaves knowing three things: is my area seller or buyer, which way is it trending, and where's my business this week. If you can't say your number, you can't coach a client to it.
Where to prospect this week
Say it: you don't need a special list, you need the read. In the seller-core cities (Scottsdale, Chandler, Gilbert, Cave Creek), work expireds and price-cuts, someone mispriced. In the buyer-ring cities (Tempe, Queen Creek, Buckeye, Maricopa, Surprise), work paused buyers and pre-foreclosure. Same play off the same read, every week. Bring your three targets to Thursday.
Role-play — decide the cadence live
We back the review with reps. Most of the room works day jobs now, so decide the cadence together:
- In-person, virtual evening Zoom, or hybrid?
- What times actually work, evenings, weekends, or a block right after the huddle?
- Fold a 10-minute role-play into the huddle plus a longer weekly session that fits day jobs?